Sports Page Atlanta

I heard an interesting statistic yesterday about the back of the rotation for the Braves last season. The guys in the #4 and #5 spot in 2007 (Buddy Carlyle, Lance Cormier, Anthony Lerew, Jo-Jo Reyes and Mark Redman) were a combined 22-36 with a 6.37 ERA. That’s a whole lot of mediocrity. Looking at those stats, it means the Braves, in those 58 games, had to overcome more than a six run deficit to win. That just can’t happen in 2008 if the Braves hope to make it to post-season play.

So, let’s take a look at the contenders for the back of the rotation in 2008. It’s an almost certainty that John Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine will be the #1 through #3 starters. That leaves six pitchers fighting it out for the final two spots. I’ll place them in order of likelihood to earn the last two rotation spots.

1. Mike Hampton - Yes, he tweaked his groin and is going to miss his scheduled start tomorrow. But, he’s going to throw a simulated game and even though the injury scares most people, Hampton really is putting together a mighty nice spring. He hasn’t given up an earned run and has two strikeouts and a walk in 3.1 innings. If he gets back on track and only misses his next start, keeps pitching the way he’s been so far, he’ll win the #4 spot.
2. Jair Jurrjens - There has been as much hype surrounding Jurrjens lately, than any other Braves pitcher. He’s been electric so far with a 2-0 record in three starts. His ERA is 1.00 and he has four strikeouts to only two walks in nine innings of work (the most by any Braves hurler). It probably wouldn’t hurt Jurrjens to get a little more seasoning pitching in Richmond, but if he’s throwing like this, he’ll make it impossible for the Braves to send him down.
3. Buddy Carlyle - Carlyle is 1-0, but his ERA is a little on the high side (5.14) after getting touched up by Cincinnati last week. Up until that point he was pitching close to flawlessly. One thing to be optimistic about is Carlyle’s strikeout to walk ratio. In seven innings of work he has logged seven strikeouts and zero walks. It’s ratio’s like that that make pitching coaches very happy.
4. Jo-Jo Reyes - In two starts, Reyes has a 4.50 ERA as he’s given up an earned run in each of his two inning mound appearances this spring. A little troubling is his five walks in only four innings of work. He does have five strikeouts, but needs to get a handle on his control and bring the walks down to grab that 5th rotation spot.
5. Chuck James - James hasn’t pitched at all this spring, and isn’t schedule to pitch until later in March. Unless he gets going very soon, his chances of a rotation spot, and even making the ballclub are in jeopardy.
6. Jeff Bennett - Bennett is in the same boat as James. He hasn’t pitched yet this spring, and is way behind the four competitors who have.

photo credit: too_thickskinned